In a move that has sparked anger and concern from China and Russia, the United States is coordinating with Japan to deploy advanced missile systems on the Nansei islands near Taiwan. The plan, which is expected to be finalized by December, involves the deployment of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and other weapons to enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities against a potential Chinese invasion. The Nansei islands stretch from Japan to within 200 kilometers of Taiwan and include Okinawa, where the US has a significant military presence.
This joint military operation between the US and Japan marks the first time they are actively preparing for a potential conflict between Taiwan and China. As part of the plan, a regiment of the US Marine Corps equipped with HIMARS will be deployed to temporary bases on the Nansei islands. The Japan Self-Defense Forces will provide logistical support, including fuel and ammunition.
Unsurprisingly, China has strongly criticized this development. A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry expressed opposition to “relevant countries using the Taiwan question as an excuse to strengthen military deployment in the region.” They further emphasized that such actions would heighten tensions, disturb regional peace, and stability. Russia also voiced its concerns about this joint plan, warning that it would respond with necessary measures to bolster its own defense capabilities.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that if medium-range missiles were deployed on Japanese territory as a result of this cooperation, it would pose a real threat to Russian security. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov even suggested that Moscow might consider stationing shorter- and intermediate-range missiles in Asia as a response.
The reasons behind these developments lie partly in Russia’s previous statement that Taiwan is part of China while expressing support for China’s wargames near the island. This aligns with their closer partnership and cooperation in recent years. Furthermore, the United States has accused China of supporting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine by facilitating its defense industry.
While both China and Russia have expressed their concerns, experts argue that the primary objective of deploying HIMARS to the Nansei islands is to protect Taiwan from potential Chinese naval threats. Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlighted that HIMARS would primarily serve as an anti-ship capability to safeguard Taiwan and its base.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, recently warned about China’s large-scale rehearsal for an invasion of Taiwan involving 152 vessels. He stressed the importance of being prepared for such a scenario. With China having the world’s largest naval force and the US aiming to counterbalance it, deploying HIMARS on the Nansei islands could help neutralize potential amphibious landing ships and destroyers approaching Taiwan from the north.
Experts also draw parallels with Ukraine, where HIMARS have been successfully deployed against Russian forces. Timothy Heath from RAND Corp. emphasized that these weapons systems demonstrate that the US and its allies are learning lessons from previous conflicts. The plan also includes deploying long-range firing units to the Philippines through the Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTS), further increasing pressure on China.
The deployment of HIMARS to the Nansei islands and long-range firing units to the Philippines presents significant challenges for China. Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at Tokyo International University Institute for International Strategy, believes that these locations are crucial not only for deterring China’s aggressive actions in East Asia but also for countering Beijing’s ambitions in the Pacific region. However, he predicts that China will respond by enhancing military readiness and engaging in more assertive activities in response.
As tensions rise between China and Japan over territorial disputes in both the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea, it is crucial to consider how these developments fit into larger geopolitical dynamics. The US defense secretary recently concluded a trip to the Indo-Pacific region, where discussions were held with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea. This visit resulted in increased participation in trilateral amphibious training exercises and closer intelligence-sharing agreements.
The US-Japan joint missile plan serves as a clear indication of the growing concerns over China’s assertiveness in the region. As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, it remains to be seen how China and Russia will respond to these developments and what impact they will have on regional stability.