With just over three weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris in betting markets and tightened his standing in critical swing states. Fueled by weekend polls that reveal a dwindling gap in Harris’s lead, Trump now holds a 10-point advantage in the Real Clear Politics betting average. On prediction sites like Kalshi, Trump has a 54 percent likelihood of winning, compared to Harris’s 46 percent—a stark shift since Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted a significant edge for the GOP: for the first time since the 1980s, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats nationwide, a factor that could prove decisive in key battleground states. A Pennsylvania poll from DailyMail.com shows the race deadlocked at 47 percent each, and polling from ABC, CBS, and NBC confirms Harris’s once-commanding lead has slipped in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Harris is facing new controversy, as reports accuse her of plagiarizing portions of her 2009 book, Smart on Crime. The allegations, brought to light by plagiarism investigator Stefan Weber, claim Harris lifted passages from Wikipedia and various news sources without attribution, intensifying scrutiny as the Harris-Walz ticket pushes to sway undecided voters.
As Harris grapples with these mounting challenges, Trump is gearing up for a major rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, amplifying his media presence in an unconventional blue-state push. His campaign’s focus on high-profile events in major media markets reflects a strategy to dominate national media coverage as the race enters its final stretch.
With polls showing a neck-and-neck race, Democrats are urging patience amid the shifts, but former Obama aide David Plouffe notes the race has remained tight since September.
