Western diplomats are freaking out that Israel, fresh off military successes in Gaza and Lebanon, is choosing to keep the war rolling instead of cashing in those wins for a ceasefire. Word on the street is, Netanyahu has his eye on the U.S. elections, and he’s not about to hand Kamala Harris a victory by agreeing to a ceasefire that could boost her. Marwan al-Muasher, Jordan’s former foreign minister, put it bluntly: “Netanyahu won’t stop until after the elections—he won’t give Harris that gift.”
With recent kills like Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah under their belt, diplomats around the world are urging Israel to turn that momentum into peace talks. But Israeli officials say, “diplomacy isn’t enough right now,” and want to keep pushing militarily. Trump, unsurprisingly, has weighed in, praising Netanyahu for doing “what’s necessary,” while throwing shade at Biden for trying to slow things down.
Meanwhile, the UNIFIL forces in Lebanon are not thrilled. A senior Western diplomat expressed concerns about Israel going solo, saying, “This war was supposed to last days—it’s been weeks, and we fear it’ll go on for months.” He added that Israel’s refusal to communicate is making things worse, with UNIFIL refusing to budge from their positions. The fear is, Israel’s deepening involvement could turn into a full-on occupation of southern Lebanon, which would give Hezbollah exactly the excuse they need to keep fighting.
Diplomats are saying, “Look, you’ve rattled Hezbollah, now’s the time to make a deal.” But it looks like Netanyahu’s more interested in playing the long game, and the world may just have to buckle in for a prolonged conflict—at least until after the U.S. election drama plays out.
