China is increasingly concerned about the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with fears that a full-scale war in the Middle East could deeply impact its strategic and economic interests. China’s strong relations with Iran, particularly through its oil imports and infrastructure investments, put Beijing in a precarious position.
As one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil, China relies on Tehran for 10-15% of its crude oil imports, making it vulnerable to disruptions if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities. Such an attack could force China to source more expensive oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, while the Strait of Hormuz—through which much of this oil flows—could become a hotspot for missile strikes by Iran or its proxies, further endangering global supply.
Though China has large oil reserves and a diversified energy mix, with oil accounting for 18% of its energy compared to 34% in the U.S., a regional conflict could severely hurt its broader commercial interests. China’s investments in Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE as part of its Belt and Road Initiative could also face significant risks.
China’s approach has been to position itself as a non-interventionist power, but it has recently taken a more active diplomatic role in the Middle East. It mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March, restoring diplomatic ties between the two regional powers. However, despite its close relations with Iran, China’s military ties with Tehran remain limited, and reports suggest Beijing has been cautious about committing significant resources to Iranian projects.
Beijing’s fear of a Middle Eastern war is driven by the potential economic blow and the risks to its geopolitical aspirations, especially as it seeks to fill the gap left by waning U.S. influence in the region.
