A recent study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation has revealed that North Korea’s arms sales to Russia have surged, with estimates reaching up to $5.5 billion as Pyongyang increasingly supports Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The report, released on October 28, underscores a tightening alliance as North Korean weapons and troops bolster Russia’s aggression, marking a dramatic shift in global dynamics as both nations deepen their military and diplomatic ties.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has ramped up arms shipments, fueling a lucrative trade that Ukrainian military intelligence estimates includes up to $1.7 billion in minimum arms shipments alone. Alongside weapon sales, Pyongyang is expected to earn additional “hundreds of millions of dollars” by deploying troops, a decision that Ukrainian intelligence confirms has already seen North Korean soldiers integrated into Russian ranks.
Analysts warn that while Russia may seek to increase North Korean troop presence, scaling to more than 20,000 soldiers could destabilize Kim Jong Un’s regime. The report highlights risks of desertion and the strain on North Korea’s tightly controlled resources, suggesting Pyongyang is treading carefully as it weighs military support against internal stability.
North Korea’s support for Russia isn’t limited to military exchanges. Diplomatic engagement has soared, with more than 24 high-level meetings between Russian and North Korean officials since January 2024—an unprecedented pace compared to the past three decades. The surge reflects a strategic shift: Russia is now leveraging this relationship as a way to pressure Western allies in East Asia, especially South Korea and Japan, into rethinking their support for Ukraine. According to study author Olena Guseinova, “Russia is using its relationship with North Korea – and the potential transfer of military technology – as a tool to test the unity of Western alliances.”
As both Moscow and Pyongyang gain from this partnership, the escalating support poses a direct challenge to the West. With North Korea cashing in on a billion-dollar arms trade, Russia gains a vital ally in its war effort, forcing Western allies to reassess the shifting power dynamics and prepare for the repercussions of this formidable new alliance.
