Dolphins’ Offensive Transformation and Tua Tagovailoa’s Struggles
The Miami Dolphins have made a notable turn in their offensive strategy this season, establishing themselves as one of the league’s most formidable running teams. Over their last four games, the Dolphins have consistently rushed for at least 160 yards, a feat that has propelled them to a four-game winning streak and kept their playoff hopes alive. However, this success on the ground has come at a pivotal moment when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the passing attack have notably declined.
Tua’s Reflection on Recent Performance
In a recent media session, Tagovailoa acknowledged the complexities contributing to his struggles. He expressed, “There’s a lot of things that go into that… How I’m seeing it, with how I’m going through the game, with my progressions, if I’m ahead of the play, if I’m not. I think a lot of that has played a big part being the reason why it’s not as good.” As the Dolphins prepare to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, they are entering a challenging stretch of games against teams vying for playoff positions, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots. For Miami to maintain their winning streak, Tua needs to elevate his game and make critical plays under pressure.
A Closer Look at Tua’s Struggles
The statistics paint a concerning picture of Tagovailoa’s recent performances. While he has garnered attention for his turnover count—14 interceptions—his overall advanced metrics reveal a deeper decline. In the last three games alone, he ranks 29th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, 18th in passer rating, and has the third-highest sack rate in the league. Despite the Dolphins’ offensive line allowing the third-lowest pressure percentage in the NFL during this time, Tua has been sacked disproportionately more than other quarterbacks, effectively illustrating the disconnect between protection and performance.
The film from recent games highlights Tagovailoa’s footwork issues, which have led to misthrows and late decision-making. “I’ve done a lot more in individual drills and with guys after practice,” he noted when discussing his footwork. “Whether it’s a walk-through or whatever that might look like, so yeah, I’ve spent a lot more time on that.” Given his physical limitations, precise timing and accuracy have always been essential for his success. Unfortunately, he appears to be regressing in these areas, contributing to the Dolphins’ offensive woes, as they sit 31st in passing yards since Week 11.
The Impact of Winning Amidst Struggles
Despite Tagovailoa’s challenges, the Dolphins find themselves with a winning record, which some may argue diminishes the urgency of his struggles. Miami has gone 3-0 since Week 11, and the success of the running game is a significant factor in that record. However, it’s crucial to consider whether Tua’s performance has influenced the team’s strategy to prioritize the run game. With their recent success on the ground, the Dolphins have leaned heavily into this aspect of their offense, perhaps as a response to Tua’s decline.
The absence of a reliable receiving threat, outside of Jaylen Waddle and a limited Darren Waller at tight end, further complicates matters. Tagovailoa has expressed a desire to throw more, stating, “Would I like to throw the ball more? Sure. But if running the ball is what’s helping us win games right now, I don’t see why we’d stop doing it.”
However, the sustainability of this approach is in question. Relying on a ground game for 160 yards each week may not be feasible, especially against teams like the Steelers and Bengals, who may eventually succeed in forcing the Dolphins to rely on Tua’s arm.
Looking Ahead
As the season progresses, opposing teams will undoubtedly adjust their game plans to challenge Miami’s reliance on the run, effectively placing the onus back on Tagovailoa. Given his past performances in high-pressure situations, particularly late in the season, there is reason for skepticism regarding his ability to respond when this moment arises. While Tua may welcome the chance to prove himself, the current trajectory of his play raises concerns about the Dolphins’ passing game effectiveness moving forward. If Miami is to continue its winning streak, it will need an empowered Tagovailoa who can rise to the occasion when the stakes are at their highest.
