Predicting the NFL Draft’s First Pick
Forecasting the first selection in the NFL Draft often feels like navigating a labyrinth. With a multitude of teams, an abundance of undisclosed information, and the looming specter of potential trades, creating an accurate mock draft can be a daunting task. Yet, despite the complexities, identifying the No. 1 pick is typically more attainable than deciphering the entire first round.
In recent years, players like Cam Ward have emerged as the unofficial choices for teams such as the Tennessee Titans well ahead of the big day. Similarly, Caleb Williams was viewed as the future for the Chicago Bears as early as December, although that perception may have been somewhat misguided. Historical patterns indicate that surprises can occur, as seen in the 2018 and 2022 drafts, where lack of consensus around top prospects led to unexpected selections.
As we look toward the 2026 draft, the quarterback class is already shaping up to be a source of intrigue. While it remains to be seen how the evaluations will unfold, the speculation is likely to intensify as bowl season approaches. For now, we can narrow our focus to three primary positions: quarterback, edge rusher, and offensive tackle. It’s been three decades since another position claimed the top spot, leaving defensive tackle Peter Woods and safety Caleb Downs on the sidelines for the moment.
Quarterback Favorites
The early evaluations of this quarterback class have sparked excitement, with numerous draft-eligible signal-callers vying for the top spot. Unsurprisingly, quarterbacks are the frontrunners for the first overall pick.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Currently, Garrett Nussmeier holds a slight edge in the race for the top pick. If he continues to build on his performance during the 2024 season, he could solidify his status. The LSU Tigers are in contention for a championship, and Nussmeier showcased his skills in a pivotal matchup against Clemson in Week 1. His ability to remain composed before and after the snap, combined with his knack for making plays that outshine his average tools, makes him the most pro-ready passer in this class.
Arch Manning, Texas
Entering the season with immense expectations, Arch Manning’s journey has been tumultuous. His initial performances fell short of the lofty standards set by his last name, and a particularly disappointing outing has raised questions about his trajectory. However, there’s ample time for Manning to regain his footing and elevate his draft stock. With solid physical tools and flashes of quick processing ability against lesser competition, refining his mechanics and re-establishing confidence in his intangibles will be crucial in the months ahead.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers is shaping up to be one of the more divisive prospects in the quarterback discussion. His remarkable talent is evident, as he can execute dynamic scrambles that leave observers in awe. At 240 pounds, his frame makes him a challenge to bring down, and his arm strength is noteworthy. However, he must hone his pocket presence to minimize turnovers and improve timing in his throws. If he can demonstrate growth in these areas this season, the potential for his draft stock is limitless.
Drew Allar, Penn State
Drew Allar possesses the prototypical size and arm talent that often garners attention from NFL teams. While he has the physical attributes to be a top pick, his development in intangible aspects of the game will be critical as the draft approaches.
As the 2026 NFL Draft draws nearer, the competition among these talented quarterbacks will undoubtedly intensify, setting the stage for a thrilling race to the top.
