Miami Dolphins quarterback turmoil: what lies ahead for Tua?
With the Miami Dolphins officially out of playoff contention and Tua Tagovailoa now benched for the remainder of the regular season, attention swiftly shifts to the future of the franchise’s quarterback position. The decision to demote Tagovailoa raises critical questions about his long-term viability with the team, particularly considering the complexity surrounding his contract.
Contract complications
Tagovailoa’s situation is far from straightforward. He is guaranteed a staggering $54 million in 2026, and his cap hit stands at $56.4 million. Should the Dolphins choose to part ways with him, that cap number balloons to an eye-watering $99 million. However, if the team opts for a post-June 1 designation, they could lower that figure to $67 million in 2026 and $32 million in 2027. Adding to this dilemma is a $27 million injury guarantee that activates should he suffer an injury that prevents him from passing a physical. Furthermore, a $3 million bonus is due on the third day of the 2026 league year, making the financial implications of his contract a significant hurdle for the Dolphins.
The reality is that moving on from Tagovailoa is more complex than merely benching him. If the Dolphins decide to close the chapter on his time in Miami, they have two potential pathways that echo past NFL trades.
Exploring the Brock Osweiler option
One avenue is reminiscent of the Brock Osweiler trade. Before joining the Dolphins to back up Ryan Tannehill in 2018, Osweiler found himself at the center of a notable trade in March 2017. The Houston Texans, reeling from buyer’s remorse after signing him to a four-year, $72 million deal, traded him to the Cleveland Browns, along with a second-round pick, essentially as a salary dump. The Texans valued the financial relief so highly that they sacrificed a valuable draft pick, which the Browns later used to select star running back Nick Chubb.
The Dolphins could consider a similar approach with Tagovailoa. By trading him, they could reduce his cap hit from $99 million to around $45 million. While parting with a draft pick is painful, it might be a necessary sacrifice to alleviate their financial burden. NFL analyst Chris Canty advocates for this strategy, stating, “If the Dolphins front office and ownership know what they’re doing, it is far more likely that they trade Tua than cut Tua.”
In this current draft class, which is notably weak for quarterbacks, the Dolphins possess the 11th overall pick and multiple selections in the first two days. The strategy would involve convincing another team to take on Tagovailoa’s contract while compensating them with a draft pick. The acquiring team could then opt to release him, mirroring the Texans’ actions with Osweiler. This would allow Miami to offload Tua’s salary without incurring the full brunt of a $99 million dead cap hit.
The Russell Wilson alternative
Alternatively, the Dolphins could take the “Russell Wilson option.” This would involve cutting Tagovailoa outright and absorbing the associated cap ramifications. The Denver Broncos faced a similar scenario when they released Wilson, incurring a $53 million cap hit in 2024, along with another $32 million this year, but ultimately found themselves in the playoffs last season after drafting quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 draft.
While this approach may not require the loss of additional draft capital, it does come with its own set of consequences. The Dolphins would need to brace for significant financial pain, effectively placing them in a rebuilding phase, yet it may be a necessary step if they are to move forward without Tagovailoa.
The road ahead for Miami
As the Dolphins navigate this challenging situation, they must weigh their options carefully. Whether they choose to trade Tagovailoa in a salary dump reminiscent of Osweiler or cut him outright in a bid to rebuild, the decision will have lasting implications for the franchise. With the future of the quarterback position hanging in the balance, Miami’s front office is at a critical juncture, tasked with making a choice that could shape the team’s trajectory for years to come.
