Dolphins’ Playoff Aspirations Hang by a Thread
The Miami Dolphins find themselves in a precarious position as the NFL playoff picture begins to take shape. Despite being mentioned as “in the hunt” over the weekend, their playoff hopes are far from secure. As analysts on “Good Morning Football” noted, the Dolphins are not quite “lurking” in the AFC playoff race, raising the question of whether they truly belong in discussions surrounding postseason contenders.
Upcoming Challenges
To even entertain the notion of postseason play, the Dolphins must first secure victories against the New Orleans Saints at Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday, followed by a crucial matchup against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 14. Achieving a win in both games would elevate their record to 6-7, a mark that could ignite conversations about their playoff viability. However, until those wins are in the books, it is premature to include Miami in playoff predictions, mirroring the exclusion of the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings from similar conversations despite their identical 4-7 records.
The Road Less Traveled
Historically, the journey from a 4-7 record to a playoff berth is fraught with challenges. Since the introduction of the 17-game season in 2021, only two teams have turned such a record into a playoff appearance: the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Crucially, both teams achieved this feat by winning their respective divisions. For the Dolphins, the path to a division title is littered with obstacles. They must not only win out to close the season at 10-7 but also rely on the New England Patriots losing all five of their remaining games to finish at 10-7, and the Buffalo Bills dropping at least three of their last six.
The Patriots still have matchups against struggling New York teams, including the Jets and Giants, making a 0-5 finish for them appear unlikely.
Historical Precedents
While it is not entirely impossible for the Dolphins to rebound, history suggests that teams in their position often struggle. Four teams have managed to recover from a 4-7 start to finish with a winning record, including the 2021 Dolphins. However, none of these teams reached the playoffs after concluding their seasons with a 9-8 record. The other franchises that achieved this were the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals, the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 2022 Detroit Lions. Notably, no team has ever finished with a 10-7 record after starting 4-7.
Interestingly, the last team to accomplish a six-game winning streak after being 4-7 in a 16-game season was the Dolphins themselves, back in 2005. Under the leadership of Nick Saban, they transformed a dismal 3-7 start into a 9-7 finish, though it ultimately fell short of securing a playoff spot.
The Dolphins now face a critical juncture in their season, with their playoff hopes resting on their ability to overcome their upcoming challenges. Time will tell if they can navigate this turbulent path and keep their postseason dreams alive.
