Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Hopes Dim as Odds Plummet to Less Than 1%
The Miami Dolphins’ recent victory in Week 13 has added a glimmer of hope to their playoff aspirations, but the reality of their situation remains stark. Despite improving their record to 5-7, the Dolphins find themselves in a precarious position, sitting at 11th place in the AFC standings. With critical matchups ahead and numerous outcomes out of their control, their path to the postseason appears fraught with challenges.
Current Standing and Remaining Roadblocks
At this juncture, the Dolphins are just one game shy of two teams that are currently outside of the playoff positions—Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They trail the Houston Texans by two games and are three games behind a trio of teams vying for the three wild-card spots: the Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, and Buffalo Bills. To even entertain playoff thoughts, the Dolphins will need to leapfrog four teams, a daunting task when those contenders are facing each other in the season’s final weeks.
Playoff Simulator Insights
According to projections from a playoff simulator, the Dolphins’ odds of making the postseason are alarmingly low, sitting below 1%. Even a hypothetical scenario where they achieve five consecutive wins, culminating in an eight-game winning streak, would only elevate their chances to 13%. If they were to finish with a 4-1 record, their best-case scenario would yield a mere 7% probability of advancing—assuming the lone loss occurs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A loss against any other opponent would effectively keep their chances at below 1%.
Week 13 Outcomes and Desired Results
The Dolphins were hoping for favorable results across the league in Week 13 to bolster their playoff ambitions. Here’s a look at the matchups they were keenly watching:
1. Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
– The Dolphins needed the Jaguars to falter, but the Titans proved unable to secure an upset, further complicating Miami’s path.
2. Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
– The Cowboys were the preferred victors in this interconference clash, but the Chiefs continued to struggle, marking another disappointing outcome for Miami fans.
3. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
– With hopes that a new offensive coordinator might spark the Raiders, the game ended in disappointment, highlighting Las Vegas’ ongoing struggles.
4. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
– The Bengals, bolstered by Joe Burrow’s return, emerged victorious, complicating the wild-card race further for the Dolphins.
5. Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
– The Dolphins hoped for a Colts victory over the Texans, but Houston’s strong form continued, pushing Miami further down the standings.
6. Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos
– Despite the matchup lacking excitement, the Commanders’ performance did little to affect Miami’s playoff situation.
7. New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
– A win for the Patriots here would effectively close the door on Miami’s hopes for the AFC East title.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
– The Dolphins face the Steelers soon, and a loss for Pittsburgh could be crucial, but their playoff prospects remain dim.
AFC Playoff Picture and Remaining Schedules
As the Dolphins navigate these turbulent waters, the playoff picture in the AFC is becoming clearer. The remaining schedules of their rivals will play a pivotal role in determining Miami’s fate. The teams currently positioned for a playoff berth have varying degrees of difficulty ahead, ranging from the Denver Broncos at 10-2, who face a mix of competition, to the Dolphins themselves, who will need to secure wins against the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New England Patriots.
The road ahead is daunting, and while the Dolphins are still mathematically in contention, it will require not only a perfect finish but also a multitude of favorable outcomes across the league to keep their playoff dreams alive.
