Golden opportunity for Matthew as Packers receiver aims to shine deep against Cowboys’ porous pass defense
The NFL season is already a month in, and Week 4 brings a host of intriguing matchups, including notable clashes like the Eagles versus the Buccaneers, the Chargers taking on the Giants, and the Colts squaring off against the Rams. However, this article focuses on three standout prop picks that could shape the landscape of Sunday’s slate.
NFL Prop Picks Overview
Carson Wentz Under 210.5 Passing Yards -114 on FanDuel
Jaxson Dart Over 32.5 Rushing Yards -114 on DraftKings
Matthew Golden Over 20.5 Longest Reception -110 on bet365
Wentz in the International Spotlight
The Vikings will face off against the Steelers in Dublin, Ireland, and all eyes will be on Minnesota quarterback Carson Wentz. We are betting on Wentz’s passing yards to fall short in this international matchup. In recent weeks, he struggled to surpass the 210-yard mark, even in a game where the Vikings relied heavily on the run against the Bengals, leading to two defensive touchdowns.
Analyzing the Vikings’ offensive trends, it becomes clear why this prop is enticing. Over their first three games, Minnesota’s quarterbacks have recorded passing yards of 143, 158, and 173, respectively. The Vikings’ offensive strategy has been sluggish, characterized by a high run-to-pass ratio and an inability to sustain drives. They have operated at the slowest pace in the league, taking a considerable amount of time between plays.
In fact, both the Vikings and Steelers ranked among the bottom five teams in snaps per game as of Week 3. The Vikings have the seventh-highest neutral rush rate in the NFL at 44%, a figure that would have placed them in the bottom tier last season. While the Steelers’ defense has struggled against the pass, this matchup seems to favor fading Wentz, who has not performed well since 2019.
Dart’s Debut and Running Potential
As Jaxson Dart prepares for his first career start with the New York Giants, there are some risks involved, but he possesses the agility necessary to exploit a favorable matchup. The Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the league this season, with all three opposing quarterbacks surpassing their rushing prop against them.
The only team yielding more rushing yards to quarterbacks is the Bills, who faced high-caliber athletes like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Dart’s over/under rushing yardage is notably higher than that of previous opponents, but he is likely to take advantage of any opportunities to run. Dart demonstrated his ability to scramble effectively during his final year in college, making a prop bet on him to rush for 33 or more yards an appealing option.
Golden’s Opportunity Against Cowboys
Matthew Golden is set to take the field against a Cowboys defense that has struggled mightily against deep passes. In his last game, Golden registered a 34-yard reception, and with the Cowboys allowing the most passing yards per game, he could capitalize on this weakness.
Dallas has been particularly vulnerable to deep throws, ranking at the bottom for yards per attempt, average depth of target (ADOT), and the percentage of deep throws allowed. Alarmingly, six out of ten wide receivers have exceeded their longest reception prop against the Cowboys this season.
Golden, primarily deployed on vertical routes, has run the highest number of go routes on the Packers. His performance metrics reveal he excels in separation and win rates on these types of routes. After connecting on a long pass last week and coming tantalizingly close to two others in the previous game, expectations are high for a successful connection this week against a defense that has proven to be a favorable matchup for deep threats.
As the Packers look to exploit the Cowboys’ defensive frailties, all eyes will be on Golden as he aims to shine in this prime opportunity.
