Dolphins and Bills Set for AFC East Showdown
As the NFL week kicks off, all eyes turn to Thursday Night Football, featuring an exciting AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. The teams are on sharply contrasting paths this season; the Dolphins are struggling at 0-2, while the Bills have surged to a strong start at 2-0. This matchup promises to be filled with action, and savvy bettors will want to explore the prop bets available for key players.
Key Prop Bets to Consider
Here’s a closer look at our top prop picks for the Dolphins-Bills game, highlighting intriguing opportunities for bettors.
Dawson Knox Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -110 on BetMGM
James Cook Over 11.5 Receiving Yards -108 on DraftKings
De’Von Achane Over 5.5 Receptions +115 on BetMGM
Knox’s Low Line Presents Value
One of the most compelling bets revolves around Dawson Knox, who has a surprisingly low line set at 13.5 receiving yards. Despite a reduced role following the addition of Dalton Kincaid, Knox has exceeded this mark in both games to start the season. This trend appears poised to continue, particularly against a Dolphins defense that has struggled against tight ends. Currently, Miami ranks sixth in the NFL in allowing receiving yards to tight ends, signaling an opportunity for Knox.
What stands out is the way the Dolphins’ defense has allowed targets from the inline position—where tight ends typically line up—accounting for 23.1% of their target share. This percentage is the highest in the league, making it a favorable situation for Knox. With 45% of his routes run inline, Knox is positioned well to achieve at least 14 receiving yards.
Cook’s Receiving Potential
Another appealing prop bet focuses on James Cook, whose line for receiving yards is set at a modest 11.5. Over the last three seasons, Cook has surpassed this threshold in 62.5% of his games. Excluding a couple of games where he played limited snaps due to injury, that success rate rises to approximately 65%.
In the season opener, Cook demonstrated his potential with 58 receiving yards on five targets. Although last week’s game saw limited passing volume as the Bills cruised to victory, the Dolphins’ defense has proven vulnerable to running backs in the passing game. In their first two matchups this year, all three running backs faced by Miami have exceeded their receiving yardage prop. Historically, Cook has also thrived against the Dolphins, hitting this prop in all four of their recent meetings, including a blowout where he managed 17 yards despite limited playing time.
Achane’s Catching Ability
Finally, De’Von Achane is another player to keep an eye on, particularly with a prop set at over 5.5 receptions. The Bills have allowed a significant target share to running backs, with 21.6% of total targets directed their way. This trend echoes last season, where they ranked among the highest in the league for receptions allowed to running backs.
Achane has previously excelled against the Bills, recording seven and eight receptions in two encounters last year. While six receptions might seem ambitious, Achane has consistently achieved this mark with Tua Tagovailoa as his quarterback, hitting six or more receptions in 9 out of 13 games with Tagovailoa under center.
Despite missing this prop in Week 1, Achane’s snap count increased to 93%, indicating he is primed for a significant role moving forward. Given his involvement in the passing game, he is well-positioned to deliver in this match.
As the Dolphins and Bills prepare for their divisional showdown, these prop bets offer a glimpse into the potential offensive fireworks. With both teams looking to make a statement, the stage is set for an exhilarating night of football.
