Broncos’ Defensive Decline Sparks Concern as Playoff Aspirations Hang in the Balance
The Denver Broncos, once heralded for their formidable defense, now find themselves grappling with a significant decline as the season approaches its critical juncture. After establishing themselves as one of the NFL’s elite defensive units through the first eleven weeks, the Broncos’ defensive struggles since then have raised alarms, particularly as they aim for the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
A Shift in Performance
The downturn in the Broncos’ defensive performance can be traced back to their mini-bye following Week 10, but players have pinpointed the Week 12 bye as the true catalyst for their struggles. What was once a dominant force has faltered, and the numbers tell a compelling story.
In the first eleven games of the season, the Broncos boasted impressive statistics:
Total Yards Allowed: 274.4 per game
Passing Yards Allowed: 186 per game
Rushing Yards Allowed: 88.4 per game
Sacks: 4.5 per game
Points Allowed: 17.5 per game
This performance placed the Broncos fourth in EPA per play, with the lowest allowed success rate in the league. Their defense was a stalwart, setting the stage for a struggling offense to secure crucial victories.
However, the narrative shifted dramatically in the five games following the Week 12 bye:
Total Yards Allowed: 299 per game
Passing Yards Allowed: 206.8 per game
Rushing Yards Allowed: 92.2 per game
Sacks: 3 per game
Points Allowed: 21.2 per game
When focusing solely on Weeks 13-16, the disparity becomes even more stark, as the Broncos allowed an average of 339 total yards per game, with a significant increase in points surrendered. This shift highlights the challenges they have faced since their early-season success.
Changing Metrics and Defensive Philosophy
Advanced metrics provide further insight into the Broncos’ decline. The team dropped from third in EPA per play to a concerning 17th, signaling a substantial regression. Their ability to generate pressure has waned, which has raised concerns among coaches and players alike.
Head coach Sean Payton has voiced his apprehension, stating, “Not worried about the sacks… Worried about caging the quarterback, rushing properly.” While the total sack numbers have decreased, the effectiveness of containing opposing quarterbacks has also diminished. In the early part of the season, the Broncos averaged 4.5 sacks per game, holding quarterbacks to just 10.6 rushing yards per game. In contrast, their more recent efforts have allowed 25 additional rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, leading to more explosive plays and increased inconsistency.
Coaching Concerns and December Trends
A troubling pattern has emerged for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, as his defenses have historically struggled during the month of December. Opposing teams seem to exploit weaknesses in his schemes, raising questions about his ability to adapt. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers have both taken advantage of these vulnerabilities, leaving fans and analysts worried about the Broncos’ playoff viability, especially if they secure home-field advantage.
Looking Ahead: A Critical Opportunity
With the playoffs looming, the Broncos have been granted a brief respite to reevaluate their approach and prepare for a crucial matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. A victory in this game would clinch the top seed in the AFC, providing an invaluable bye week to address their defensive shortcomings.
Payton has emphasized the importance of securing the top seed, stating it would minimize the risk of an early postseason exit. The Broncos have set their sights on the Super Bowl, and winning the division was merely the first step. To advance, they must restore their defense to its earlier form, a task that looms large as the playoffs approach.
