Brock Purdy’s Timing Issues Threaten 49ers’ Super Bowl Aspirations
The San Francisco 49ers managed to secure another victory, yet their offensive performance raises questions about their potential to reach the Super Bowl. Despite the win, quarterback Brock Purdy’s struggles with timing and decision-making continue to be a concern. Notably, all of the team’s touchdown drives originated from the Cleveland Browns’ territory, and Purdy finished the game with a modest 168 passing yards.
Purdy’s Play Extension Skills
While Purdy has shown signs of improving comfort in the pocket, he is still exhibiting a critical trend that could hinder the 49ers’ championship aspirations. Unlike his counterpart Mac Jones, who is known for his quick releases and checking down, Purdy possesses an innate ability to extend plays. This skill can be a double-edged sword; currently, it seems Purdy is extending plays too often, which is not benefiting the team.
Statistically, Purdy’s hold time is concerning. He keeps the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer on 60% of his attempts, ranking him as the ninth-highest in the league in this regard. In stark contrast, Jones holds the ball for over 2.5 seconds just 51.8% of the time, placing him among the ten quarterbacks with the lowest rates.
The Cost of Holding the Ball
The repercussions of Purdy’s extended hold time are evident in his performance metrics. This season, when he keeps the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, he has thrown three touchdowns against seven interceptions, resulting in a 7.3% turnover-worthy throw rate, according to Pro Football Focus. Among the nine quarterbacks who hold the ball longer than Purdy, only one—JJ McCarthy—has a turnover-worthy play rate exceeding 4%. Compounding this issue, Purdy’s big-time throw rate of 1.9% is the lowest among this group, significantly trailing McCarthy’s 8.1% and Jacoby Brissett’s 3.7%.
Historical Perspective on Purdy’s Trends
Purdy’s propensity to hold onto the ball has been a trend since his rookie season. In 2022, he maintained a 50% rate of holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or more, achieving an impressive eight touchdowns against only two interceptions. The following year, that figure rose to 53%, where he threw 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, the trend has escalated further in 2024, with a 59% hold rate leading to a troubling 13 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
To date, Purdy’s statistics reflect a stark contrast in efficiency based on his timing. With three touchdowns and seven interceptions this year when holding the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, he has a combined total of 42 touchdowns and 29 interceptions for similar situations across his career. In contrast, when he releases the ball in under 2.5 seconds, his performance shines with 31 touchdowns and only five interceptions—an exceptionally strong ratio.
The Path Forward for Purdy
For the 49ers to thrive and compete for a Super Bowl, Purdy must find a balance between his instinct to extend plays and the necessity of operating within the offensive structure. While his ability to create off-script moments can be a game-changer, it has become his default approach, which is proving counterproductive. Trusting the system, much like Jones has done this season, could be the key for Purdy to unlock his full potential and elevate the 49ers’ offense to new heights.
