Bills look to maintain early-season dominance against Saints with a significant 15.5-point spread
The Buffalo Bills are set to face the New Orleans Saints in Week 4, entering the matchup as hefty 15.5-point favorites. While such a large spread might give some bettors pause, a closer examination of historical trends suggests that backing substantial favorites early in the season can often yield positive results.
Strong Track Record for Big Favorites
Since 2010, teams favored by more than 14 points in the first five weeks of an NFL season have demonstrated a remarkable record, going 10-3 against the spread. This trend could be attributed to a variety of factors, including the struggles of underdog teams still searching for their identity and the consistent performance of favored teams. The Bills, under the leadership of quarterback Josh Allen, have been a key player in this narrative.
Buffalo’s Recent Performance in High-Spread Games
In the Josh Allen era, the Bills have shown a propensity to cover large spreads effectively. For instance, in a memorable Week 4 matchup against the Houston Texans four years ago, the Bills not only secured a victory but also covered a staggering 17.5-point spread, delivering a 40-0 blowout while limiting the Texans to just 109 yards of offense. Additionally, Buffalo managed to cover a 14.5-point spread against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 and a 16.5-point spread against the New York Jets in Week 18.
The Bills’ defense played a crucial role in those victories, forcing five turnovers in the games against the Texans and Jets—an impressive feat they have achieved four times since 2019. This defensive opportunism has become a hallmark of the team’s identity since head coach Sean McDermott took the reins in 2017.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors for Success
As the Bills prepare to face the Saints, their ability to maintain this trend of covering substantial spreads will hinge on a few critical factors. The continued effectiveness of their defense, particularly in creating turnovers, will be essential. If they can capitalize on mistakes made by the Saints—led by quarterback Spencer Rattler—they may well extend their early-season dominance.
With October nearing and the stakes rising, the Bills will aim to solidify their standing as one of the league’s elite teams, leveraging their strong start and the weight of statistical favor in their matchup against the Saints.
