Baker Mayfield’s Deep Pass Dilemma Fuels Buccaneers’ Offensive Struggles
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a troubling situation. With only two victories in their last seven outings, their problems extend beyond the win-loss column. Defensive and special teams units have faltered, with the defense ranking as the sixth-worst in the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Special teams have frequently left opponents with advantageous field positions following kickoffs.
Offensive Woes Mount
However, the offense is where the real concerns lie. In a recent contest against the New Orleans Saints, the Buccaneers fell short in a 24-20 defeat, showcasing a lackluster performance. The team converted a mere 3 of 13 attempts on third downs and only 2 of 7 on fourth downs. Their offensive rankings reveal significant deficiencies: they sit at No. 19 in third down conversions, No. 22 in yards per game, and a dismal No. 26 in red zone scoring percentage, according to TeamRankings.
At the heart of these struggles is quarterback Baker Mayfield. Once touted as an NFL MVP candidate at the beginning of the season, Mayfield’s performance has dipped sharply since the Week 7 matchup against the Detroit Lions, particularly in one crucial aspect of his game.
Deep Pass Inefficiencies
Mayfield’s inability to connect on deeper passes has become a glaring issue. Since the Lions game, he has thrown 78 passes of 10 or more air yards, completing only 28 of them—a completion rate of just 35.9%. This statistic places him 38th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks during that timeframe. His struggles have intensified over the last three games, where he has managed to complete merely four of 24 attempts on deep throws, landing him at the bottom of the rankings for qualified quarterbacks. In the game against the Saints, Mayfield’s performance was particularly dismal, completing just 1 of 11 deep passes and averaging a mere 4.1 yards per attempt. While inclement weather may have played a role, the pattern of inefficiency is undeniable and has stifled the Buccaneers’ offensive progress.
Exploring the Causes
Identifying the root causes of Mayfield’s passing struggles is complex. His personal decline is a significant factor, but injuries have also plagued him this season. Problems with his oblique and knee, along with a recent shoulder sprain sustained against the Los Angeles Rams, may have impacted his throwing accuracy. If these injuries are affecting his performance, it could explain the inconsistency observed in recent weeks.
The challenges are not solely on Mayfield’s shoulders, however. The Buccaneers’ offensive line has faced injuries, limiting the time he has to make deeper throws. Additionally, the team has struggled against man coverage, which typically opens up opportunities for deep passes. They have recorded -0.17 expected points added (EPA) per play against man coverage, averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt. This issue may stem from offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s difficulties in scheming players open, but receivers must also step up to create separation. The impact of dropped passes cannot be overlooked, either. Emeka Egbuka, stepping in as a primary option with Mike Evans sidelined, has recorded six drops, tying for 10th in the league. One particularly costly drop could have resulted in a significant gain of over 23 yards.
Ultimately, while several factors contribute to the Buccaneers’ offensive struggles, the onus largely rests on Mayfield. Regardless of injuries or receiver performance, he must elevate his game, especially with the postseason in sight. If the Buccaneers hope to make any noise in the playoffs, they need a revitalized effort from their quarterback.
