Warriors’ Lineup Dilemma: Is Steve Kerr Overthinking the Rotation?
The Golden State Warriors find themselves grappling with a perplexing depth issue a month into the season. While six players boast a positive net rating, the remaining eight have struggled significantly, with Al Horford (-14.1) and Buddy Hield (-17.0) leading the way in disappointment. Gary Payton II (-4.1) and Jonathan Kuminga (-6.6) have not been as detrimental, but their contributions have left much to be desired. This raises a pressing question: Is head coach Steve Kerr overcomplicating the rotation?
Returning to the Winning Formula
Last season, the Warriors thrived with a specific lineup that showcased their five best players—a combination that proved effective in high-pressure situations. Closing out games with Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, this quintet achieved an impressive plus-17.9 net rating over 459 possessions, leading the team to an 18-4 record in games where they played together.
Despite being a smaller lineup, this group demonstrated resilience, registering a 51.2 percent rebounding rate and forcing turnovers at a remarkable rate, ranking in the 96th percentile. Their effective field-goal percentage was equally commendable, sitting in the 66th percentile, showcasing that Podziemski and Moody could provide the necessary shooting to complement Butler and Green’s versatile game.
During a recent matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, Kerr opted for a closing lineup featuring Curry, Podziemski, Payton, Butler, and Green. In a game where the Warriors trailed by four points in the final minutes, they ended the game still down by the same margin. The question lingers: Would the outcome have shifted had Kerr chosen to play Moody instead of Payton? While Kerr might argue that the larger issue lay in the first 44 minutes of the game, where the Warriors faltered against a struggling opponent, it’s puzzling why the coaching staff has strayed from a lineup that yielded such success last season.
Evaluating Player Impact
The Podziemski-Moody combination, alongside the star trio, has only seen 23 possessions together this season, yet they hold a staggering plus-25.9 net rating. This raises the stakes for Kerr’s decision-making, especially with Kuminga set to return. The selection of the closing lineup will hinge on current performance, demanding a keen assessment of which players have the hot hand alongside Curry, Butler, and Green.
While it’s true that Moody had an off night in the recent game against Portland, the rationale for playing Payton over him is debatable. Payton’s speed can disrupt opposing ball-handlers, and he has a more developed game as a roller and finisher in the paint. However, Moody’s overall skill set and reliability make his presence crucial during clutch moments. One notable misstep by Payton occurred when he vacated his assignment, allowing Deni Avdija to drive and resulting in a three-pointer from Caleb Love that extended Portland’s lead. Such errors are less frequent with Moody and Podziemski, whose understanding of positioning supports Green’s role as the defensive anchor.
Looking Ahead: A Tough Decision Awaits
As the season progresses, the return of Kuminga will complicate Kerr’s decisions even further. Each player’s performance will need careful consideration, and the coach must determine if those with the hot hand should join Curry, Butler, and Green during critical moments. However, unless compelling circumstances arise, the default lineup should remain as it was last season: Curry, Podziemski, Moody, Butler, and Green.
The blend of Podziemski and Moody’s three-point shooting along with their solid defense has already proven to elevate the Warriors’ performance, enhancing the dynamics of the Curry-Butler-Green trio on both ends of the court. It may be time for Kerr to embrace the lineup that propelled Golden State to success last season and to avoid overcomplicating a winning formula.
