Golden State Warriors Face Dilemma: Trade Kuminga or Risk Offensive Decline
The Golden State Warriors find themselves at a pivotal moment as the trade deadline approaches. Opinions diverge widely on what the team must prioritize. Some insiders advocate for a point-of-attack defender, while others suggest a versatile three-and-D wing. There are even calls for a center who can dominate the glass and protect the rim. However, the most pressing need is glaringly apparent: the Warriors desperately require a player who can score effectively in the paint.
Statistics Highlight a Critical Weakness
Two statistics paint a concerning picture of the Warriors’ interior scoring struggles. Currently, the team ranks 29th in points scored in the paint, averaging a mere 41.1 per game. If the season were to end today, that figure would mark the second-lowest per-game total for the franchise in the past five years.
More alarmingly, only three players on the roster average over 4.0 points in the paint per game. Among the 30 teams in the NBA, 28 have at least five players meeting this benchmark. The Warriors find themselves in the company of only the Boston Celtics in terms of this offensive deficiency. This lack of paint scoring significantly simplifies defensive game plans for opponents, allowing them to focus on key scorers like Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, and Stephen Curry, while largely ignoring other potential threats.
The Kuminga Conundrum
The most viable path for the Warriors to bolster their paint scoring might involve trading Jonathan Kuminga, who becomes eligible for a deal mid-January. However, this presents a paradox. Kuminga is one of the team’s few effective scorers in the paint, averaging 7.5 points in that area.
The Warriors would need to ensure that any return from a trade either includes a player who can score more effectively in the paint or one who can create opportunities for others. For instance, Ivica Zubac is averaging 14.7 points in the paint per game, making him an attractive target if the Los Angeles Clippers decide to offload assets as the trade deadline approaches. Alternatively, players like Michael Porter Jr., who averages 8.3 points in the paint while also being a three-point threat, or Domantas Sabonis, whose playmaking ability creates additional scoring opportunities, could also fit the bill. Among these options, Zubac stands out as a strong candidate, particularly given his defensive prowess.
Comparing the Current Squad to the Championship Team
When examining the current roster’s scoring capabilities, the contrast with the 2021-22 championship team is stark. That squad featured eight players averaging at least four points in the paint per game—five more than this year’s struggling group. Andrew Wiggins led the 2021-22 team with 6.9 points in the paint, while Jordan Poole’s contributions were critical, allowing him to average 5.8 points himself and create additional scoring opportunities through his drives.
This year’s offense lacks that fluidity, with Kuminga, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, and Klay Thompson providing a more balanced attack alongside Wiggins and Curry during the championship run.
The Importance of Paint Scoring for Title Contention
While a strong ranking in points in the paint is not strictly essential for championship contention, the current situation raises concerns. The 2021-22 Warriors finished 25th in this category, averaging 44.7 points, while the Celtics in their 2023-24 championship season ranked 27th with 47.0 points. However, the Warriors’ current average of 41.1 points is alarmingly low and is impacting their overall offensive performance.
This year’s Warriors sit at 22nd in offensive rating, with a significant contributor being their high turnover rate, which ranks 26th in the league. Often, the team finds itself unable to convert seemingly straightforward scoring opportunities in the paint, leading to unnecessary turnovers and missed chances.
In an effort to compensate for their lack of interior scoring, the Warriors are attempting the second-highest number of three-point shots per game. Yet, their shooting efficiency lags behind, ranking 12th in the league in three-point percentage. This inconsistency has resulted in a rollercoaster season, as reflected in their 10-9 record.
The crux of the matter is not that the Warriors need to overhaul their roster entirely in pursuit of paint scorers. Instead, it’s crucial for the team to address their position as one of the worst teams in the league in terms of points in the paint. Even a modest improvement in this area could significantly enhance the Warriors’ offensive prowess.
