Draymond Green’s Offensive Challenges Mount as Warriors Search for Winning Formula with Curry
The Golden State Warriors face a significant dilemma with Draymond Green’s current performance. Opposing defenses have recognized his struggles, particularly with his three-point shooting. They are opting to leave him open, confident in their assessment that he is not a reliable offensive threat. Moreover, they know that Green struggles to finish plays, which diminishes his ability to drive or roll effectively to the basket. This knowledge has led defenders to anticipate his high-risk passing attempts, creating a perfect storm for his struggles. As a result, Green is experiencing what could be deemed the worst offensive season of his career.
Turnover Troubles
At the heart of Green’s offensive woes lies an alarming turnover rate. Currently, he is averaging 4.1 turnovers per 36 minutes, placing him among the highest in the league in this category. Coupled with his lowest assist average in over a decade, which stands at 5.0, Green’s performance is dragging down the Warriors’ overall offensive output. This has prompted a much-needed reevaluation of the team’s rotation strategy.
Curry and Green: A Necessary Partnership
The Warriors have a straightforward principle guiding their rotation decisions: when Stephen Curry is off the floor, Jimmy Butler should be on, and vice versa. This strategy aims to ensure that one of their star players is always available to lead the offense. However, this season, coach Steve Kerr has not maximized the synergy between Curry and Green, despite their extensive history together.
Recent lineup data reveals a stark contrast in efficiency when Green plays alongside Curry versus when he pairs with Butler. In 276 possessions without Butler, the Curry-Green combination boasts an impressive offensive rating of 123.6 and a net rating of +10.0. Conversely, the Butler-Green lineups without Curry have yielded a troubling offensive rating of 101.8 and a net rating of -2.1.
Kerr’s Lineup Adjustments
Kerr has made some adjustments to Green’s minutes in recent games. For the last five contests, Curry has played fewer minutes in the first and third quarters, allowing him to be more active during the second and fourth quarters. The new rotation looks something like this:
1st and 3rd Quarters: Curry plays the first 8 minutes, sits for the last 4
2nd and 4th Quarters: Curry plays the first 4 minutes, sits for the next 4, then returns for the final 4
Green typically plays shorter stints, often not exceeding six minutes, meaning he exits two minutes earlier than Curry in the first and third quarters. Unfortunately, this strategic shift has not yielded positive results. Over the past five games, Green has posted a staggering -42 plus-minus rating, while Curry remains at +7 in the same span. This discrepancy highlights the challenges the Warriors face, especially considering they have dominated in moments when Curry has played without Green.
The Path Forward
As the Warriors grapple with the implications of Green’s performance, they find themselves at a crossroads. They are left with little choice but to continue with the established plan that has seen Curry and Green thrive together over the past 14 years. Historically, their partnership has produced strong net ratings, making them one of the most effective duos in the league.
The Warriors must navigate this difficult period while hoping for a resurgence in Green’s play. The stakes are high, as the team seeks to maintain its competitive edge in a challenging season. The need for a cohesive and effective lineup is paramount as they work to unlock the potential that has defined their success in recent years.
