Giants Face Dilemma on Justin Verlander’s Return
The San Francisco Giants find themselves at a crossroads as they consider whether to re-sign veteran pitcher Justin Verlander for the upcoming season. With a projected price tag of $15 million, the decision carries significant weight and implications for the franchise.
Free Agency Landscape Shifts
With the conclusion of the World Series, a seismic shift occurred in Major League Baseball as over 100 players officially became free agents. The Major League Baseball Players Association released an updated list of available players, which includes three Giants: Verlander, infielder Wilmer Flores, and infielder/outfielder Dominic Smith. Among these, only Verlander appears on several Top 50 free-agent lists, drawing attention to his potential value as a target for the Giants.
Valuation of Verlander
According to Baseball America’s assessment, Verlander is ranked 35th among free agents, a notable decline from his previous standing but still indicative of his capabilities. The site ranks him as the 15th best pitcher available, suggesting that the 42-year-old right-hander has more to offer a Major League team, despite the challenges posed by age and recent injuries. Baseball America estimates a one-year deal for Verlander could command $15 million—a figure consistent with his previous contract.
Financial Implications for the Giants
The Giants are navigating a tight financial landscape, with a projected payroll tax of $185 million based on their anticipated 40-man roster. Signing Verlander would elevate this figure to $200 million, comfortably below the first tier of the competitive balance tax, set at $244 million. This raises a crucial question for the Giants: is investing in Verlander a wise move?
Verlander’s Recent Performance
When the Giants signed Verlander, they were aware of his injury history. In 2024, he faced a stint on the injured list due to right pectoral soreness but managed to make 29 starts throughout the season. His performance, however, was less than stellar, finishing with a record of 4-11 and a 3.85 ERA. Verlander logged 152 innings, striking out 137 batters, which elevated him to eighth place on the all-time career strikeouts list, surpassing franchise legend Gaylord Perry. Still, he also issued 52 walks, raising concerns about his consistency.
Rotation Competition Ahead
As the Giants look to the future, they have a promising starting rotation that includes Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Carson Whisenhunt, Landen Roupp, Trevor McDonald, and Carson Seymour. Verlander would likely face competition for a spot from Roupp, McDonald, and Seymour. However, if the Giants believe they can extract more value from Verlander in 2026, pursuing his services at $15 million could be a calculated risk worth taking.
In this pivotal offseason, the Giants must weigh the potential benefits of retaining Verlander against the backdrop of their overall strategy and financial commitments. The decision could shape the direction of the franchise in the years to come.
