Marlins Consider Michael Kopech as High-Risk, High-Reward Bullpen Addition
In a strategic pivot, the Miami Marlins are turning their attention toward enhancing their bullpen ahead of the upcoming season. While their starting rotation is robust, featuring a mix of established talent and promising prospects, the relief squad has been less reliable. Last season, Marlins relievers ranked 22nd in the league, posting a collective ERA of 4.28, just a notch better than their starters, who finished 26th with a 4.84 ERA. This underperformance has prompted the front office to explore potential upgrades, and one name emerging in discussions is the volatile yet talented Michael Kopech.
A Promising Yet Injury-Prone Option
The notion of adding Kopech, a right-handed flame-thrower, has sparked interest. Sean McCormack from Fish on First suggests that if the Marlins can secure a healthy season from him, the upside could be monumental. Kopech’s transition to a relief role ahead of the 2024 season has yielded a respectable 3.89 ERA across 136 2/3 innings, underscoring his potential impact. His strikeout rate stands out as well, with a K/9 ratio of 12.12 and a strikeout percentage of 31.5%, having fanned 184 batters during his career as a reliever.
Kopech’s Stuff+ metrics have consistently ranked above league average, aside from a dip in 2023, hinting at the elite potential that he brings to the mound. If Miami were to secure him on a short-term, prove-it deal, the benefits could far outweigh the risks.
Concerns Over Health and Control
However, the flip side of the coin is Kopech’s challenging injury history. The latter part of the 2023 season saw him undergo surgery to remove a cyst from his right knee. Though he bounced back for a healthy 2024, setbacks soon followed. This past offseason, shoulder inflammation led to a stint on the 15-day injured list, which then progressed to a 60-day IL designation. After a brief return, he found himself sidelined again with recurring knee issues, limiting him to just 14 appearances this season.
Beyond health concerns, Kopech’s control issues raise further red flags. Since his shift to the bullpen, he has walked 70 batters, translating to a 12% walk rate and a BB/9 ratio of 4.61. His Location+ metric, with a career average of 89, indicates that accuracy has been a persistent challenge throughout his career.
A Calculated Gamble for the Marlins
Despite these drawbacks, the Marlins find themselves in a position where they need game-changers in their bullpen. With Kopech’s potential for dominance tempered by his injury woes and control issues, Miami faces a calculated gamble. An affordable commitment to Kopech could yield significant rewards if he manages to stay healthy and harness his impressive skill set.
As the offseason unfolds, the Marlins’ pursuit of impactful bullpen additions will be closely watched. Kopech represents both a risk and an opportunity—a fusion of promise that could redefine their relief efforts.
