Kurtz, Springer, and Carpenter Target Home Run Glory as MLB Playoff Race Intensifies
Despite the fanfare surrounding the return of football, the MLB regular season is winding down with critical division matchups. Today, a full slate of 15 games takes center stage, offering ample opportunities for home run picks as teams jockey for playoff positioning. Here’s a closer look at three prime candidates poised to send one deep.
Home Run Selections
Nick Kurtz +300 on DraftKings
George Springer +375 on ESPN BET
Kerry Carpenter +450 on DraftKings
Kurtz Aiming for a Long Ball Against Red Sox
Nick Kurtz has experienced a dip in production since his explosive four-home run game in July. However, he’s starting to find his rhythm again, with two home runs and three barrels over the past week. Although yesterday’s performance was less than stellar, facing Garrett Crochet can be excused, as he’s a tough lefty.
Tonight, Kurtz faces Dustin May, who has struggled with home runs this season, allowing one every 19 at-bats to left-handed hitters. This stat places Kurtz in an excellent position to capitalize, as May’s vulnerability aligns perfectly with Kurtz’s power potential. Adding to the allure of this matchup, Sutter Health Park stands out as the day’s most favorable venue for home runs, boasting a +29 home run index thanks to warm temperatures and favorable winds. Expect Kurtz to make the most of these conditions with a powerful swing.
Springer’s Power Surge in Toronto
George Springer is on a tear, showcasing his slugging prowess with six barrels over his last seven games. Following a strong performance on Sunday, which included three hard-hit balls and one barrel, Springer is primed to continue his success at the plate.
Facing Luis Garcia of the Astros adds an element of intrigue to tonight’s game. Although Garcia has only made one start this season, he allowed two home runs in that outing and sported a staggering 20% barrel rate. With an average launch angle of 30 degrees, Garcia’s pitching mechanics present a formidable opportunity for hitters like Springer, who boasts an impressive 60% fly-ball rate.
With three home runs in the last week and a total of nine over the past 30 days, Springer seems well-positioned to add another to his tally this evening.
Carpenter’s Favorable Matchup at Yankee Stadium
Kerry Carpenter thrives in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, where the short right field porch perfectly complements his hitting style. With a pull rate of 47% this season, Carpenter is adept at exploiting the dimensions of this iconic ballpark.
Recently, he has been hitting with authority, posting a 14% barrel rate and an impressive 85% hard-hit rate over the last week. Tonight, he faces Yankees starter Will Warren, who, while a competent pitcher, has shown susceptibility to left-handed hitters. Over the last eight weeks, Warren has allowed a home run every 24 at-bats, a number that falls short of the critical threshold typically sought for targeting pitchers.
Additionally, Warren has struggled with lefties, allowing a concerning 12.50% barrel rate along with a 50% hard-hit rate over his last five starts. Given these factors, Carpenter is poised to take advantage and clear the fence tonight.
As the MLB playoff race tightens, keep an eye on these three power hitters. They each carry the potential to deliver big moments that could significantly impact their teams’ postseason aspirations.
