Cubs Poised for Free Agent Splash with Upcoming Payroll Shift
The Chicago Cubs stand at a strategic crossroads as they prepare to dive into the free agency market this offseason. With a significant payroll drop looming after the 2026 season, the team has an opportunity to make bold moves and secure some of the league’s brightest talents.
Current Financial Landscape
In the current financial landscape, the Cubs have approximately $158 million tied up in eight players for the 2026 season, according to Fangraphs’ Roster Resource. This figure does not include a potential $22 million owed to pitcher Shota Imanaga if he accepts a qualifying offer, which seems unlikely given historical trends—only 14 players have accepted such offers in the past eleven years.
Even without Imanaga, the Cubs face a payroll of around $206 million when factoring in pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. This amount sits comfortably below the projected competitive balance tax threshold of $244 million, allowing the Cubs to pursue top-tier free agents like Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Dylan Cease, Munetaka Murakami, and Alex Bregman.
Looking Ahead to 2027
What makes the Cubs’ financial situation particularly intriguing is the potential for massive payroll flexibility post-2026. The team stands poised to shed at least seven veteran contracts, thanks to free agency and team options. Notable names such as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd could all be leaving the roster, with their combined salary totaling $96.5 million.
Even if the Cubs opt to retain Boyd, Colin Rea, and Carson Kelly, they would still see a reduction of $67.5 million in their payroll. This shift could result in just one veteran deal remaining on the books by 2027—Dansby Swanson, who is under contract until 2029.
The Time to Invest is Now
Given this landscape, there is a compelling argument for the Cubs to capitalize on the present. Investing in high-caliber free agents this offseason could position them for a stronger competitive standing in the following years. While it may require navigating tight finances and possibly skirting the edges of the competitive balance tax threshold, the long-term benefits could outweigh the short-term constraints.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has emphasized prudent spending strategies in recent years, and this season presents a unique chance to pivot. The financial framework suggests that the Cubs are in a prime position to invest in their future while still managing their current commitments.
As the offseason unfolds, the question remains: will the Cubs take the plunge and engage with the top-tier free agents on the market? The financial means are undeniably there, and the upcoming shift in their payroll structure provides a compelling incentive to act decisively.
