Ben Rice defies odds with unlucky streak
Ben Rice is carving out a notable season for the New York Yankees, but beneath the surface lies a story of what could have been. Despite his strong performance, Rice has emerged as one of the unluckiest hitters in Major League Baseball this year.
Understanding the Numbers
The concept of Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) provides insight into Rice’s predicament. This statistic takes into account factors like strikeouts, walks, and batted balls, offering a more nuanced picture than traditional metrics like batting average or on-base percentage. Coupled with Statcast’s exit velocity, barrel rates, and launch angle data, we arrive at a figure called expected wOBA (xwOBA). This number predicts what Rice’s wOBA should be based on the quality of his contact.
Currently, Rice holds the largest negative differential in baseball, with a wOBA of .347 compared to an xwOBA of .406. This stark contrast highlights just how unlucky he has been at the plate.
Exceptional Performance Amidst Misfortune
Even with these unfortunate statistics, Rice’s season has been impressive. He boasts an OPS of .805 and has launched 23 home runs. His average exit velocity stands at an impressive 93.4 miles per hour, placing him in the 96th percentile of MLB hitters. Furthermore, his hard-hit percentage of 56.3% ranks in the 99th percentile. These figures suggest that Rice’s potential is far greater than his current output indicates.
For the Yankees, Rice’s contributions have been essential. His ability to drive the ball hard and often positions him as a key player in the lineup. The potential for improvement looms large, creating an optimistic outlook for both Rice and the Yankees as the season progresses.
A Promising Future Ahead
As Rice continues to demonstrate his skills, the law of averages is likely to favor him. At some point, the tide will turn, transforming his misfortunes into success. For opposing teams, this presents a daunting prospect; facing a player already performing at a high level while still having room to grow is a challenge no one wants to encounter. Rice, donning Juan Soto’s former No. 22, is poised for an explosive breakout that could shift the dynamics of the Yankees’ offense.
As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on Rice, watching for the moment when his luck changes and he fully harnesses his talent on the field.
