Arizona Diamondbacks’ Pitching Overhaul Sparks Surprising Projections
The Arizona Diamondbacks have made it clear this offseason: improving their pitching staff is the top priority. General Manager Mike Hazen emphasized this goal immediately following the conclusion of last season, and it has been a recurring theme since. So far, the organization has seen the return of veteran Merrill Kelly and the signing of Michael Soroka. Together with promising arms like Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Eduardo Rodriguez, these pitchers make up the top five in the rotation depth chart. Additionally, James McCann has been re-signed to serve as the backup catcher, marking the extent of the major league roster changes to date.
While the Diamondbacks have added a handful of relievers and position players on minor league contracts with a chance to compete in spring training, the focus remains firmly on their starting rotation. This prompted an in-depth look at the team’s projections, revealing some unexpected developments along the way.
Evaluating the Projections
Each year, FanGraphs publishes projections from both ZiPS, crafted by Dan Szymborski, and Steamer, designed by Jared Cross. These projections are averaged and adjusted according to FanGraphs’ Depth Chart playing time estimates. While the complete ZiPS projections have not yet been fully released, as Szymborski unveils them team by team, the initial data from the Steamer projections is now available.
Given the current roster composition, I took the initiative to create my own playing time projections for the Diamondbacks, averaging the rates from both systems to forecast their performance.
Starting Pitcher Projections
Historically, the Diamondbacks have utilized around 13 different starting pitchers each season. Notably, last year was an anomaly, as they relied on just nine, one of whom was the “opener” Jalen Beeks. In earlier seasons, the number of pitchers in the rotation has ranged from 13 to 16, including openers.
The latest projections indicate a reasonable depth in the rotation, although they lack a standout ace. The forecasted ERA for starting pitchers stands at 4.10, which marks a surprising improvement over last year’s 4.29 ERA. This improvement hints at potential growth for a team that is looking to enhance its competitiveness.
As the offseason progresses, the Diamondbacks will continue to evaluate their roster and explore avenues for further improvement. With a clearer picture of their pitching staff beginning to emerge, fans and analysts alike will be keenly watching how these projections translate into on-field performance as the new season approaches.
