The UK’s net migration record has been revised up to 906,000 in the year leading up to June 2023, according to official figures. The data shows that while there has been a decrease in net migration, with long-term immigration exceeding emigration by 728,000 in the same period, the revised numbers highlight a significant increase from the initial estimate of 740,000. This revision is consistent with an upward adjustment for net migration in the year ending December 2023, which was initially estimated at 685,000 but is now estimated at 866,000.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed these revisions to more complete data and improved estimation methods for migration behavior of individuals arriving in the UK from outside the European Union (EU). The sheer scale of these inflows is staggering – equivalent to adding two cities the size of Leicester each year. Consequently, this surge in net migration is expected to spark a fresh political row.
Kemi Badenoch, a prominent figure within the Conservative Party, used a major speech to express her party’s stance on immigration. She emphasized that Britain should not be treated as a “hotel” for migrants and vowed that her party would not allow such treatment. These revised figures underscore her concerns and lend weight to her argument.
In analyzing the breakdown of immigration by nationality and purpose for coming to the UK within this period, it becomes clear that work and study were dominant factors. Of the 1.2 million people who came to live in the UK during this time frame, approximately 86% or one million individuals were from outside of the EU. Indian nationals comprised a significant portion of this group – both for work-related reasons (116,000) and study-related purposes (127,000). Additionally, it is worth noting that 845,000 were of working age, while 179,000 were children.
Despite the net migration levels remaining high by “historic standards,” the ONS suggests that it is now beginning to fall. Mary Gregory, Director at the ONS, attributes this decline to various factors such as geopolitical events like the war in Ukraine and the impact of post-Brexit immigration policies. Furthermore, she highlights the pent-up demand for study-related immigration due to travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The revisions made by the ONS are a result of ongoing reviews and improvements in data collection and estimation methods. The agency recognizes that these adjustments are essential to providing accurate and comprehensive information on net migration trends, particularly for individuals arriving from outside the EU. This commitment to precision ensures that policymakers have reliable data for decision-making processes.
In response to these revised figures, Kemi Badenoch reiterated her concerns about immigration levels being far from desirable. She pledged to implement a strict numerical cap on arrivals, allowing only those who can make substantial contributions to Britain into the country. Additionally, she plans to review Britain’s membership in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and evaluate the continuation of Labour’s Human Rights Act – both perceived as barriers to imposing stricter immigration policies.
Conservative ministers initially projected that their policy changes would reduce net migration by 300,000; however, the full impact will not be evident until next year’s figures are released. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts net annual migration subsiding to 315,000 per year over the medium term. Despite these projections, Home Office Minister Seema Malhotra declined to specify an acceptable level of net migration during a recent interview but emphasized that any policy should be based on a credible plan addressing both economic and social impacts.
The revisions in net migration figures highlight an ongoing debate around immigration policies in the UK. As politicians grapple with finding a balance between economic necessity and public sentiment, accurate data becomes crucial. The ONS’s commitment to refining its data collection methods ensures that policymakers have the necessary tools to make informed decisions on immigration policies that reflect the needs and desires of the nation.