As the sun approaches its solar maximum, New Zealand’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is stepping up preparations for potential power and communication outages caused by extreme solar storms. While such events are rare, experts warn they could disrupt power grids, satellite systems, GPS, and radio communications, leaving parts of the country without electricity for up to 36 hours.
This proactive approach underscores the growing risks associated with the solar maximum, an 11-year peak in solar activity marked by increased solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
What Are Solar Storms and Why Are They a Concern?
Solar storms occur when the sun emits large amounts of energy and charged particles, such as during solar flares or CMEs. These phenomena can disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, leading to geomagnetic storms. While minor storms create dazzling auroras, extreme events can wreak havoc on critical infrastructure.
Dr. Malcolm Ingham from Victoria University explains that while auroras are harmless, the same solar activity can overload power transformers, damage satellites, and interfere with GPS systems. “Transformers don’t sit on shelves,” Ingham notes, warning that widespread transformer damage could take months or years to repair.
NEMA’s Preparedness Plan
In its interim space weather response plan, NEMA outlines measures to mitigate the risks of extreme solar storms. The agency has coordinated with emergency services, Transpower, and international space weather monitoring bodies to develop a strategy that includes:
- Receiving Alerts: NEMA will monitor international alerts for geomagnetic storms reaching level 3 or higher.
- Public Communication: Alternative communication methods will be employed if solar storms disrupt traditional systems.
- Proactive Measures: Parts of the power grid may be preemptively switched off to prevent overheating and equipment damage.
The plan will be activated when a significant event is imminent, with the Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery leading the response.
Lessons Learned from Recent Storms
May 2024 provided a real-world test when a solar storm, one of the strongest in decades, caused disruptions worldwide. While New Zealand avoided major outages, airlines rerouted flights due to GPS disruptions, and parts of the national grid were temporarily taken offline as a precaution.
Transpower’s head of grid operations, Matt Copland, emphasized the importance of such proactive measures. “We’ve been preparing since 2010,” Copland said. “Switching off parts of the system can minimize damage and allow us to restore power quickly.”
Potential Damage and Costs
The financial and societal impact of an extreme solar storm could be immense. U.S. research estimates that damage from a large-scale solar storm could cost up to $2.7 trillion globally. In New Zealand, officials estimate an annualized risk of $1 billion.
Beyond the immediate costs, longer-term effects include the replacement of critical infrastructure, disruptions to businesses reliant on GPS and communications, and increased demand for spare parts globally.
What’s Next?
As the solar maximum intensifies, scientists and officials are closely monitoring the sun for signs of heightened activity. With only about a day’s warning for extreme events, the focus remains on readiness and resilience.
NEMA plans to update its space weather response plan in the coming weeks, incorporating lessons from recent events and refining strategies to protect New Zealand’s critical infrastructure.