As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the Oval Office, the president-elect has vowed to bring peace to the world’s most intractable conflicts. From Ukraine to the Middle East, Trump has promised to leverage his dealmaking prowess to end wars and forge stability.
However, the global stage in 2025 is far more complex than when Trump last held office, with shifting power dynamics and hardened positions among key players. Trump’s vision of brokering swift agreements faces formidable challenges, from Russia’s renewed aggression to a more defiant China and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The Ukraine Challenge
Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” hinges on brokering a ceasefire and negotiating concessions. Yet, the situation on the ground is anything but conducive to quick resolutions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating the conflict, massing forces in southeastern Ukraine, and launching intensified missile strikes. Ukraine, bolstered by U.S. military support under President Joe Biden, remains resolute in reclaiming its territories, including Crimea.
Trump’s own national security team, likely to include hawkish voices such as incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, may resist any agreement that appears to cede ground to Russia. Balancing these dynamics will test Trump’s ability to assert control while avoiding perceptions of weakness.
Israel’s Complex Reality
In the Middle East, Trump’s task is equally daunting. While he supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military efforts, Trump wants Israel to finalize operations in Gaza and Lebanon before his January inauguration.
But Netanyahu, emboldened by recent military successes, is less likely to bow to external pressure. Discussions within his government about annexing parts of the West Bank threaten to prolong hostilities and derail Trump’s broader goal of Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Any peace deal will also require navigating tensions within Trump’s own administration, which includes staunchly pro-Israel figures like U.N. Ambassador-designate Elise Stefanik and Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth.
The Iran Nuclear Dilemma
Trump faces an uphill battle in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Despite Tehran’s openness to renewed negotiations, recent Israeli strikes have pushed Iran closer to reconsidering its nuclear doctrine. Iran’s hardliners view these attacks as evidence of strategic vulnerability, potentially accelerating efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Trump’s planned “maximum pressure” campaign of heightened sanctions could further isolate Iran but may fail to yield the desired concessions, especially with Tehran’s distrust of U.S. intentions deepening since Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.
North Korea and Russia’s Alliance
Kim Jong Un’s North Korea presents another major roadblock. Trump’s earlier diplomatic overtures, including his “special friendship” with Kim, are unlikely to resonate in today’s geopolitical environment.
North Korea’s new alliance with Russia has strengthened Pyongyang’s position, with Kim receiving vital economic and military support from Moscow. Trump’s ability to negotiate disarmament will be limited without significant leverage over both nations.
China’s Tougher Stance
China, under President Xi Jinping, poses a significant challenge for Trump’s foreign policy agenda. Xi has adopted a more hardline approach toward Taiwan and trade, further complicating Trump’s goal of reducing tensions.
While Trump’s threats of new tariffs could pressure China’s struggling economy, his softer stance on Taiwan may embolden Beijing. Moreover, Xi’s closer alignment with Moscow undermines Trump’s transactional approach to global diplomacy.