In November 2024, a cease-fire agreement was brokered between Israel and Hezbollah, bringing a temporary halt to the ongoing conflict in the region. While United States President Joe Biden and his team played a significant role in facilitating the negotiations, it is important to recognize the influence of former President Donald Trump on the current dynamics of the Middle East. Trump’s unorthodox approach to foreign policy and his clear messaging during his electoral campaign had a profound impact on both Israeli and Lebanese leaders, who sought to align their actions with what they believed Trump would want once back in power.
Trump’s electoral victory sent a strong signal to world leaders that he prioritized stability and an end to conflicts. This message resonated particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had been seeking a way to resolve tensions with Lebanon. Trump’s outreach efforts towards Arab-Americans, including influential figures like Lebanese-American businessman Massad Boulos, further cemented the belief that he could bring about a peaceful resolution. Boulos even went as far as stating that if Trump were elected, he would act immediately to end the war in Lebanon.
During meetings between Israeli officials and Trump’s team at Mar-a-Lago resort before his inauguration, it became clear that Trump expected progress on a cease-fire even before taking office. This expectation was conveyed directly to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer during their discussions. The pressure from Trump and his team undoubtedly pushed both sides towards reaching an agreement.
The recently brokered cease-fire marks an important step towards de-escalation in the region. Under this agreement, Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon while Hezbollah moves north of the Litani River as mandated by a U.N. resolution from 2006. Lebanon will reinforce its presence south of the river with an additional 10,000 troops during a transition period of 60 days. Additionally, Hezbollah has reportedly agreed not to smuggle weapons from Syria into Lebanon to compensate for those destroyed in Israeli airstrikes.
However, the sustainability of the cease-fire remains uncertain. The absence of direct participation from Hezbollah in the negotiations raises concerns about their commitment to the agreement. Furthermore, Israeli officials have made it clear that they will not hesitate to take military action if Hezbollah violates the terms of the cease-fire and seeks to rearm. This raises questions about Israel’s reliance on U.S. and French arbiters to determine violations and whether they would wait for a formal assessment before responding.
In the coming days, there are potential risks associated with Lebanese Shiites rushing back to their villages in southern Lebanon despite instructions from both Israeli and Lebanese armies to wait until Israeli troops withdraw gradually. Any perceived provocations or minor infringements by Hezbollah members could lead to escalation, triggering a swift response from both sides.
Netanyahu’s decision to pursue a cease-fire was met with opposition from within his cabinet, particularly from ultranationalist factions who believe that this deal squandered an opportunity to eliminate Hezbollah entirely. Netanyahu now faces pressure from far-right politicians within his government who may push for immediate military action at even minor provocations by Hezbollah.
The cease-fire falls short of Netanyahu’s original goal of crushing Hezbollah similar to how he has dealt with Hamas in Gaza. While he argues that Hezbollah is no longer as powerful as before, there are concerns that without disarmament, the group could regroup and continue its activities with its existing arsenal of missiles, drones, and rockets.
The success of this cease-fire also depends on how Hezbollah’s leaders in Iran proceed. Given Iran’s current economic challenges under Trump’s sanctions regime, there appears to be little appetite for engaging in a proxy war against Israel at this time. Instead, Iran has shown willingness to explore talks with Washington regarding its nuclear program. However, Iranian officials have also warned that if provoked, Hezbollah could utilize its most potent weapons, potentially changing the situation entirely.
The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the longevity of this cease-fire. The international community, led by the United States and France, will play a critical role in monitoring compliance and addressing any violations. The Middle East remains a volatile region with deep-rooted conflicts, and it is essential to approach the current cease-fire as a stepping stone towards lasting peace rather than a final resolution.
In conclusion, while President Biden’s efforts deserve recognition for brokering the recent cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, we cannot overlook the impact of former President Trump on the calculations of combatants in the Middle East. Trump’s messaging during his campaign created an environment where leaders sought to align their actions with his expectations. The future of this cease-fire hinges on multiple factors, including Hezbollah’s commitment to disarmament, Israeli response to potential violations, and Iran’s overall approach under economic pressure. As events unfold, it is crucial for international actors to remain vigilant and engaged in order to ensure lasting stability in the region.