The Los Angeles Dodgers are making waves again, reaching an agreement with star southpaw Blake Snell on a massive five-year, $182 million deal. Pending a physical, the contract will bring Snell to Dodger Stadium with significant deferred payments—a move that ultimately lowers the net present value of the deal to around $160-165 million. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, will pocket a hefty $52 million signing bonus, and his contract includes limited no-trade protection along with a $5 million assignment bonus if dealt. The deal does not feature any opt-outs, locking Snell into L.A. through his age-36 season.
A Quick and Impactful Signing
This offseason’s biggest pitching signing so far, Snell’s deal comes much quicker than his last free-agent journey. After winning the Cy Young Award in 2023, the long-term offers he sought didn’t materialize immediately, leaving Snell unsigned until March when he ultimately joined the Giants on a two-year, $62 million contract. However, after a rollercoaster season, Snell took advantage of an opt-out after year one to return to the market in search of a more lucrative deal—and the Dodgers answered.
Snell’s Season: From Struggles to Stardom
The 2024 season began with struggles for Snell, who had a rocky start that saw him allowing over a run per inning through his first six starts. A pair of stints on the injured list due to groin discomfort only added to his woes, and as recently as mid-June, the idea of Snell returning to free agency seemed uncertain. But everything changed once he returned from injury. Snell put together a historic stretch, compiling a 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and absolutely dominating his competition. He held opposing hitters to an abysmal .123/.211/.171 slash line, reminiscent of the days when pitchers stepped to the plate.
Snell also struck out over 38% of batters faced during that stretch, with five double-digit strikeout games and eight or more Ks in 10 outings. His crowning moment came at the end of July when he struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies, and followed it up with a no-hitter against the Reds, fanning 11.
Despite his dismal start to the year, Snell finished the season with a strong 3.12 ERA and an eye-popping 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings across 20 starts. Though he didn’t receive any Cy Young votes, he finished the year looking as dominant as ever, matching his peak form that earned him two Cy Young Awards in previous seasons.
Why the Dodgers Want Snell
The Dodgers have clearly seen past Snell’s early-season struggles, perhaps attributing them to an abbreviated Spring Training and early injuries. Historically, Snell has been a slow starter—he has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate during the first half of seasons, but his numbers drastically improve in the second half, where his ERA plummets to 2.39 with a strikeout rate above 32%. This trend aligns with the Dodgers’ philosophy: focus on upside and capitalize on a player’s peak abilities.
Los Angeles has shown a willingness to take on injury risks in exchange for postseason upside. Their approach centers on acquiring pitchers who can serve as potential Game 1 starters come October, even if durability remains a concern during the regular season. That approach burned them in 2023, when injuries piled up and led to an early playoff exit. But it paid off in 2024, with a patchwork rotation—led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler—delivering enough to secure their second World Series title in five years.
Snell fits this mold as perfectly as any pitcher in the game. His career 2.57 ERA over the last two seasons is only bested by Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal, and his strikeout rate ranks just behind Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers are banking on Snell’s late-season magic to bolster a rotation that could be one of the league’s most formidable, especially with Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow all capable of ace-level performances on any given night.
The Dodgers’ Stacked Rotation
The addition of Snell gives the Dodgers an embarrassment of riches in their rotation. The quartet of Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow means the Dodgers could potentially field four pitchers capable of starting Game 1 of a playoff series. Behind them, veterans like Clayton Kershaw (expected to re-sign) and emerging arms like Bobby Miller, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin provide ample depth, while talented prospects like Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski stand ready if needed.
But the Dodgers might not be done yet. They’ve shown interest in Japanese star Roki Sasaki, and they could also explore other options like acquiring Garrett Crochet. Even without further additions, the Dodgers now boast a rotation designed not just to make the postseason, but to dominate it.
A Major Financial Commitment, With an Eye on the Prize
The Dodgers’ willingness to commit big money underscores their financial might. This deal represents their third major pitching investment in the past year (fourth if you count Ohtani’s dual-role contract). After inking Yamamoto for $325 million and extending Glasnow for $110 million, the addition of Snell further highlights Los Angeles’ win-now mentality.
Of course, such spending doesn’t come without consequences. The Dodgers are likely to surpass the highest luxury tax threshold, which means steep financial penalties. This $182 million deal alone could cost them an additional $25-30 million in taxes. Still, with Ohtani’s heavily deferred salary providing some payroll flexibility, the Dodgers have managed to stockpile elite talent while navigating the luxury tax implications.
Snell’s deal, valued right in line with MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of $160 million, doesn’t come with the cost of draft compensation either, as he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer. This made him an especially attractive option compared to other top-tier free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, who would have cost the Dodgers valuable draft picks and international bonus money had they pursued them.
The Market Response
With Snell off the market, Burnes and Fried become the clear top two targets for teams seeking elite pitching. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles were all reportedly in the mix for Snell, and they will now turn their attention elsewhere. Boston, in particular, has been aggressive in pursuing frontline starters, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ramp up efforts to land Burnes or Fried in the coming weeks.
For the Dodgers, this move is all about securing dominance. By adding another ace-caliber arm, Los Angeles continues to solidify its standing as a perennial powerhouse, poised to contend for yet another title. Blake Snell is now a part of that mission, and for the Dodgers, it’s World Series or bust.
