Ukraine has reportedly executed its first strike on Russian soil using the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), signaling a significant escalation in its military campaign against Moscow. The strike, which took place on November 25, targeted the Kursk Vostochny air base in western Russia, marking a turning point in Ukraine’s use of advanced weaponry.
Details of the Attack
According to Cyber Boroshno, a Ukrainian geospatial intelligence group, the attack deployed cluster warheads that detonated across parts of the airfield, including a parking area.
- Satellite imagery suggests that the missile payload struck areas within the airfield, though it is unclear if any Russian combat aircraft were damaged.
- While Moscow has yet to confirm the incident, a Russian blogger with alleged ties to the air force corroborated the reports, describing ballistic missile strikes on the base.
This operation comes amid heightened tensions and reflects Ukraine’s expanding ability to conduct long-range precision strikes.
Washington’s Green Light for Long-Range Strikes
The attack follows a November 17 decision by US President Joe Biden to lift restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russian territory. This policy shift represents a departure from Washington’s earlier stance, driven by:
- Months of pressure from allies and global leaders urging greater freedom for Ukraine to counter Moscow’s aggression.
- Concerns about escalation, including the risk of Russia reverse-engineering advanced US weaponry, which had previously tempered Washington’s willingness to approve such strikes.
White House National Security Advisor John Kirby had earlier downplayed the ATACMS’ potential to destroy Russian assets like warplanes, citing the likelihood that Moscow had stationed them beyond the missile’s range.
Impact and Tactical Implications
The attack underscores Ukraine’s growing capabilities to strike strategic military targets well beyond its borders. While cluster munitions raise questions about the broader implications of their use, this operation appears to have targeted critical Russian military infrastructure.
- Operational Advantage: By striking the Kursk air base, Ukraine sends a clear signal about its ability to disrupt Russian military operations far from the front lines.
- Broader Escalation: The use of long-range missiles inside Russia may provoke a sharp response from Moscow, further complicating an already volatile conflict.
A Pattern of Escalation
This is not Ukraine’s first use of ATACMS missiles, which were initially deployed against Russian-occupied territories. Key past strikes include:
- November 18: Ukraine launched a strike against the Russian Ministry of Defence’s 67th arsenal.
- Earlier Targets: ATACMS missiles have also been used to disable radar stations and destroy weapons depots critical to Russian operations.
What’s Next?
Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes on Russian soil represents a new phase in the war, potentially reshaping the battlefield dynamic. However, the risks of escalation remain high:
- Russian Response: Moscow is likely to respond forcefully, potentially escalating attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets.
- NATO Implications: The attack could prompt renewed discussions within NATO about the scope of support for Ukraine, particularly as it relates to advanced weaponry.
This strike serves as a stark reminder of how the conflict continues to evolve, with new technologies and strategies reshaping the calculus on both sides. As Ukraine leverages US-supplied weapons for strategic advantage, the global stakes of the war grow ever higher.
