Amid relentless conflict in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is strategically capitalizing on escalating turmoil in the Middle East to bolster its international influence, analysts say. With recent Russian airstrikes in Syria targeting civilian infrastructure, Moscow’s actions seem contradictory to Putin’s statements positioning Russia as a mediator in the Israel-Gaza crisis. However, analysts suggest that Moscow benefits from precisely this level of volatility—enough chaos to weaken Western focus on Ukraine, without tipping into a broader war.
This “distraction dividend” has Moscow using the Israel-Gaza conflict to criticize U.S. policies, court nations in the Global South, and shift global attention away from Ukraine. Putin’s moves signal a growing Russian alignment with Iran, Hezbollah, and other anti-Western factions, leveraging these alliances to build a network against perceived Western hegemony. Yet, Russia walks a fine line, careful not to alienate influential Middle Eastern players like Israel and the Gulf states. Moscow’s stance stops short of full military support for Iran’s allies, with Putin seeking balance between influence and risk.
“Putin wants chaos but not a crisis he can’t control,” says Hanna Notte, a senior policy analyst. While Russia may show support to Iran or Hezbollah, she adds, Moscow’s reluctance to escalate military commitments reveals its strategy: exploit but not entangle.
Still, any escalation—particularly involving Israel and Iran—could expose Russia’s limitations. Analysts suggest Russia’s capacity to respond meaningfully would be tested if Iran faced direct threats, showing the risks of overextending influence in a volatile region.
